منابع مشابه
Measuring Incoherence
The degree of incoherence, when previsions are not made in accordance with a probability measure, is measured by the rate at which an incoherent bookie can be made a sure loser. Each bet is rescaled by one of several normalizations to account for the overall sizes of bets. For each normalization, the sure loss for incoherent previsions is divided by the normalization to determine the rate of in...
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Many terms can be used to evaluate beliefs, belief-forming processes, and other similar mental states and processes of reasoning. Such mental states and processes can be called “right” or “wrong”, “correct” or “incorrect”, “reasonable” or “unreasonable”, “justified” or “unjustified”, and so on. In recent years, ever since Tyler Burge gave his John Locke lectures in Oxford in 1993, many philosop...
متن کاملRational Probabilistic Deciders—Part II: Collective Behavior
This paper explores the behavior of rational probabilistic deciders (RPDs) in three types of collectives: zero sum matrix games, fractional interactions, and Edgeworth exchange economies. The properties of steady states and transients are analyzed as a function of the level of rationality, N , and, in some cases, the size of the collective, M. It is shown that collectives of RPDs, may or may no...
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This paper is intended tomodel a decisionmaker as a rational probabilistic decider (RPD) and to investigate its behavior in stationary and symmetric Markov switch environments. RPDs take their decisions based on penalty functions defined by the environment. The quality of decision making depends on a parameter referred to as level of rationality. The dynamic behavior of RPDs is described by an ...
متن کاملRational market making with probabilistic knowledge
A market maker sets prices over time for wagers that pay out contingent on the future state of the world. The market maker has knowledge of the probability of realizing each state of the world, and of how the price of a bet affects the probability that traders will accept it. We compare the optimal policy for risk-neutral (expected utility maximizing) and Kelly criterion (expected log-utility m...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Philosophical Review
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0031-8108,1558-1470
DOI: 10.1215/00318108-2315288